What Would a Railroad Stike Mean to the Paper and Print Industry?

The national news outlets have been reporting on a potential strike by the railroad unions, which will be based on a deadline of September 16, 12:01AM.

We have already seen a slowdown in Amtrak Passenger services and routes. Amtrak is not part of this union, but it does use the Rails that are controlled by the Railroad union. Currently, Certain commodities with short shelf life and hazardous materials are being diverted to our highways, to avoid the possibility of being stranded on the tracks in an unknown destination.

What could this mean for the print and paper industry?

Many LTL carriers use some sort of rail services. Between 30% and 40% of all Over the Road Shipments (OTR) use rail. We have all experienced driver shortages that have led to missed pick-up and delivery dates. Now imagine 30-40% more cargo pushed into the Trucking pipeline. This would lead to an extended period of delays in both pick-up and delivery as the freight industry can not manage this about of volume increase, in such a short period of time.

The second significant effect will be the increase in freight pricing that will be justified by the high demand, low supply model. This is at the same time we are already experiencing record high freight costs for the same reason as well as the high fuel costs.

I know we all experience the net result of freight costs at the grocery store. Nationally we are seeing upwards of a 17% increase in food costs currently. I cannot imagine what this amount will be if this strike happens.

In summary, be prepared for increased freight costs and shipment delays, should the railroad union vote in favor of a strike.

For comments or concerns, contact Brandon Kent at bkent@telemarkcorp.com

****As of today, 9/15/22, it appears that we will be spared the repercussions of a rail strike!

Record Paper Pricing, Record Gas Pricing, Record Inflation, When Does it stop?

When does it Stop is the Million Dollar Question!  No one I have contact with has been 100% happy with the daily increased pricing we have all seen in the past months.  This goes for those of us in the paper industry and those in non-related industries.

One thing is sure, the future is UNCERTAIN.

Speaking with several mills, all of which seem to be running at 100% capacity.  This is likely driven by the huge bounce back in the economy, post-COVID pandemic.  Another factor is that the paper mill’s manufacturing capacity is nowhere near what it once was.  The result is remaining mill’s production schedules/capacities remain full.

Is this about to change?

Here are a few of my thoughts:

  1.  Rising interest rates, by the Feds, mean the cost of borrowing money for operational capital is on the rise.  This results in a higher payment each month on borrowed money, compared to 6 months ago.  Will this result in a “re-think” of companies’ paper strategies and a potential cancellation of open and future Purchase Orders, essentially limiting the amount of borrowed capital?
  2. Was there a Hoarding of Paper in the US?  I believe this is a driving factor in the Mills being at 100% capacity.  However, I know that some Converters have excess storage facilities to house large volumes of raw material, while others simply don’t have the space.  I can’t speak for other companies purchasing habits, but this is a possibility.  Second, I can speak to end users ordering much more volume than in previous years.  Their reasoning is the hedge against future price increases and prevents future supply outages.  This habit seems to be slowing, which could reduce demand for paper mills.
  3. Outside the paper industry, we are seeing headlines of economic slowings, such as the GDP, both manufacturing and technology companies announcing layoffs, and stock prices dropping.

If the Cost of Living is increased and wages and jobs are going to be flat or cut, consumer demand could see a rapid swing downward.   Household discretionary dollars are shrinking, which will result in lower retail, restaurant, and entertainment sales.  All of these would result in a lowering in paper demand.

What CERTAINIES do we have?  The near future will look and feel different from today!

Will we see pricing reductions on Commodities, driven by shrinking demand?  We all hope so!

Although pricing reductions sound like a great idea, I don’t feel we will ever get back to a pre-pandemic pricing level.

Would I love to see a 25% reduction?  Absolutely!

Brandon Kent

Vice President

Telemark Diversified Graphics

bkent@telemarkcorp.com

Kanzaki Announces Another Increase

Kanzaki Specialty Papers is announcing a price increase on all products globally, effective with shipments on or after February 15, 2022. Kanzaki Specialty Papers continues to receive price increases and surcharges on raw materials, logistics and other operational costs.

The supply of thermal and ink jet products continues to be limited as unprecedented demand and raw material challenges persist into 2022, please order early, and be prepared for longer lead times.

The price increase includes the following:

Grade Increase Percentage
All Direct Thermal Products Up to 7%
Ink Jet Products 10%

If you have any questions, please reach out to your Kanzaki Specialty Papers Sales Representative.

As always, our Customer Service Team will also be available for you at 1-888-526-9254.

We thank you for your continued business and support as we all navigate these challenging times.

Appvion Announces Price Increase

March 1, 2021 Appvion announced a price increase ranging from 4%-10%, effective on shipments on May 3, 2021. Non-Top Coated Products are increasing 10%, Top-Coated Products are increasing 7%, and Film Products are Increasing 4%. If you would like a copy of the actual announcement, please contact Brandon Kent, bkent@telemarkcorp.com.